Crime Analysis – Denver-Part 2

Getting More Granular

Where we’re going
In having noticed the crime rates heading up over the last few years, taking a better look seemed more important. I want to first look at “CRIME” before looking into “TRAFFIC” in the data set. It sounds more interesting and I hope the results don’t keep me up at night.

What we’ll do in this post

  • Load the csv, format the data
    • This will all be hidden and can be found in the previous post (Part 1)
  • Look into apparent growth in crime rates from 2012 – 2014
  • We’ll focus only on those that fit the “ISCRIME” definition and not “ISTRAFFIC”

Let’s dive in!

Exploration of Data
Data provided by https://www.denvergov.org/opendata/dataset/city-and-county-of-denver-crime

Data Import & Formatting – shown in prior post: Crime Analysis – Denver-Part 1

Looking at Crime Incidents by Year

barplotCrime

barplotCrimeChange

Observations

  • Crime rose the most between 2013 and 2012 (39% increase)
  • Crime increased each year after but at a decreasing rate
  • Examine years 2012 – 2014 to see growth changes

Highest volume of “ISCRIME” types
Identify the offense by OFFENSECATEGORY_ID and exclude months we have not seen so far this year.

barplotCrimeCategories

Observations
It would appear as if “all-other-crimes” has moved the needle the most between 2012 – 2014. This is not a very specific category. It’s also worth noticing that “other-crimes-against-persons” has grown as well. Both of these leads to some speculation that perhaps these vague types of crimes started being reported during this period and perhaps hadn’t been documented before.

  • Growth categories:
    • “larceny”
    • “drug-alcohol”
    • “public-disorder”
  • Declining categories:
    • “theft-from-motor-vehicle”
    • “robbery”
    • “burglary”

Many of the other categories have a much lower volume of incidents. Growth is more difficult to see in visualizatoins for these cases.

Here’s a look at growth year-over-year:

barplotCrimeCategoryChange

Here’s a look at % growth year-over-year:

barplotCrimeCategoryPercentageChange

Observations

  • “all-other-crimes” is the outright leader in change in both volume and percentage growth year-over-year with an astonishing 380% increase between 2012 and 2013
  • “drug-alcohol” grew by 173% between 2012 and 2013 but dropped down to only 27% growth the next year
  • “murder” didn’t change too much in volume compared to everything else (swinging up 7 and down 10) but was a 19% growth and a 23% decline in 2013 and 2014 respectively

Final Thoughts (for now)
Due to the vague nature of the types of crimes which grew the most, I can’t determine exactly what happened in Denver during 2013. In the less vague crimes, “drug-alcohol” saw the largest increase. This was followed by “public-disorder” and perhaps there’s a relationship there. My assumption is that one may perhaps cause the other…

I’m still curious about the seasonality and month-to-month effects. Perhaps certain types of crimes are more common during certain times. I’m also very interested to see if a new population was perhaps added to the mix in 2013. If a certain part of Denver was added in 2013 that would certainly help to explain the situation.

What I’ll do in the next crime posts

  • Look for patterns by location
  • Lay out some visualizations on maps
  • Try to identify areas with high volumes of traffic incidents (maybe I can avoid a ticket)
  • Answer the question: What types of crimes have grown the most in the last 5 years?

Code used in this post is on my GitHub