Tag Archives: Bayes Theorem

Simulating Probabilities – The Monty Hall Problem

Psychology vs. Probability

Anyone old enough to remember the Monty Hall problem from the old TV Show Let’s Make a Deal? It’s a classic probability problem – but despite its simplicity, it can be hard to understand what choices to make to maximize your odds of winning.

This is the problem:

You are a contestant on a game show. The host displays three doors. One has the brand new car behind it while behind the other doors have goats behind them. Here’s a beautiful image of all possible options you would have: Continue reading